Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.731309 3.286264 3.907824 4.652986 5.519319 6.491939 7.663589
2025-04-20 1.974025 2.726057 3.669912 4.928806 6.549448 8.549791 11.187588
2025-04-27 1.457867 2.272540 3.400598 5.045998 7.347851 10.411271 14.744878
2025-05-04 1.142768 1.981640 3.246282 5.235680 8.216389 12.432145 18.737610
2025-05-11 0.881563 1.689549 3.007268 5.226911 8.761328 14.032557 22.303067
2025-05-18 0.662849 1.401032 2.699705 5.033356 8.965265 15.120430 25.203358
2025-05-25 0.493944 1.150129 2.392997 4.768719 8.989695 15.900532 27.676740
2025-06-01 0.392733 0.999518 2.228291 4.709839 9.328681 17.189973 31.045317
2025-06-08 0.314470 0.873107 2.079773 4.647285 9.638721 18.444486 34.451554
2025-06-15 0.280220 0.836533 2.103689 4.916542 10.578960 20.856700 39.999122
2025-06-22 0.233929 0.756133 2.015979 4.942069 11.053464 22.481388 44.310352
2025-06-29 0.193528 0.677913 1.915522 4.920920 11.427042 23.947374 48.447935
2025-07-06 0.158491 0.604457 1.814195 4.889736 11.794964 25.473411 52.895345
2025-07-13 0.148008 0.602262 1.891261 5.281936 13.101759 28.922568 61.200695
2025-07-20 0.129117 0.566377 1.872865 5.444862 13.934823 31.520610 68.104164
2025-07-27 0.114761 0.540670 1.876432 5.661781 14.911637 34.487798 75.937341
2025-08-03 0.095883 0.490522 1.798432 5.657481 15.383303 36.462408 81.970011
2025-08-10 0.075402 0.424103 1.654338 5.451803 15.355331 37.387687 85.972678
2025-08-17 0.057519 0.358557 1.493860 5.168590 15.098771 37.793227 88.936716
2025-08-24 0.047111 0.321277 1.416189 5.105630 15.377225 39.383686 94.464090
2025-08-31 0.038515 0.287787 1.342031 5.038582 15.634874 40.945574 100.035923
2025-09-07 0.035872 0.285241 1.381305 5.327484 16.859325 44.801028 110.777778
2025-09-14 0.030470 0.263344 1.340398 5.354874 17.383958 47.074290 118.212357